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January 04 批 08宪章生产关系要适应生产力的发展，否则会产生反作用。共产党一党专政适应中国现阶段的国情，并且实现高速的经济发展，是一个比完全民主更有效率的体制。如果我没错的话，印度好像很符合诸位所公布的08宪章吧。如果比较民主与专政对经济和民生的发展的话，大家就比较一下印度和中国。 February 28 走向金融灾难的12步走向金融灾难的12步
For English version:
作者：英国《金融时报》首席经济评论员马丁•沃尔夫(Martin Wolf) 2008年2月22日 星期五 艾伦•格林斯潘(Alan Greenspan)在《动荡年代》(The Age of Turbulence)里写道：“我将告诉人们，我们面临的不是一个泡沫而是一团泡沫——许多局部的小泡沫，它们永远不会发展到足以威胁整体经济健康的规模。”
这曾经是格林斯潘对美国房地产泡沫的看法。可惜，他错了。那么这种低迷能有多严重呢？要回答这个问题，我们应当请教一位真正的悲观人士。我最喜欢的一位是纽约大学斯特恩商学院(New York University's Stern School of Business)的教授鲁里埃尔•鲁比尼(Nouriel Roubini)，他是RGE monitor的创始人。
最近，鲁比尼教授对美国经济的假设令人不寒而栗。但他的想法值得我们认真对待。2006年7月，他率先预测了美国的衰退*。当时，他的观点极具争议。如今已经不再是这样了。现在他声称，“产生‘灾难性'金融和经济后果的可能性不断加大” **。他提出，这一假设的特点是“恶性循环，即深度衰退导致金融亏损更为严重，反过来，不断加剧的大规模金融亏损和金融崩溃又会令衰退更为严重。”
鲁比尼教授甚至比我还喜欢一二三四列举要点。以下是他列出的走向金融灾难的12步——是的，12步。
第一步是美国历史上最为严重的房地产市场衰退。他表示，房价将从峰值水平下跌20%至30%，造成4万亿至6万亿美元的家庭财富灰飞烟灭。10万个家庭最终将持有负资产，因此迫切希望将房子钥匙投入邮箱，然后动身前往更佳之地。更多的房屋建筑商将破产。
第二步是次级抵押贷款进一步亏损，超出当前估计的2500亿至3000亿美元。鲁比尼教授提出，在2005年至2007年开始发放的所有抵押贷款中，约 60%具有“草率或有害的特征”。高盛(Goldman Sachs)估计，抵押贷款损失为4000亿美元。但如果房价下跌超过20%，亏损将更大。这会进一步损害银行发放贷款的能力。
第三步是无担保消费贷款出现巨额亏损，其中包括信用卡、汽车贷款、学生贷款等等。“信贷紧缩”届时将从抵押贷款扩大至广泛的消费信贷领域。
第四步是债券保险公司评级被下调，它们没有资格获得其业务所依赖的AAA等级。接着，还要减记1500亿美元的资产担保证券。
第五步是商业地产市场崩盘，第六步是大型区域性或全国性银行破产。
第七步是草率的杠杆收购出现巨额亏损。在金融机构的资产负债表上，此类贷款高达数千亿美元。
第八步是一波企业违约浪潮。美国公司普遍状态良好，但公司“肥尾”(fat tail)盈利能力低下且债务负担沉重。这类违约将使为这些债务提供保险的“信贷违约互换”亏损面扩大。亏损额可能高达2500亿美元。一些保险商可能破产。
第九步是“影子金融体系”的垮台。由于对冲基金、特殊投资工具等机构无法直接从中央银行获得贷款，解决它们面临的困境将变得更为困难。
第10步是股价进一步下挫。对冲基金、保证金追缴通知和做空行为的失败可能导致股价连续暴跌。
第11步是一系列金融市场流动性枯竭，包括银行间市场和货币市场。其背后的原因将是对偿付能力的担忧急剧增加。
第12步将是“亏损、资本减少、信贷收缩、被迫清算和以低于基本面价格廉价出售资产的恶性循环”。
这些就是走向金融体系崩溃的12步。总之，鲁比尼教授认为：“金融系统的全部损失加起来将超过1万亿美元，经济衰退将影响更深远、持续时间更长、更加严重。”他指出，令本•伯南克和其他美联储官员一直担心的，就是这种“噩梦般的结局”。这解释了长期以来一直未能认识到危险的美联储为什么在今年将利率下调了200个基点。这是抵御金融体系崩溃的保险。
这种假设至少有那么一点可信吗？是的。此外，如果它成为现实，我们可以肯定，它将结束所有宣扬“脱钩”的故事。如果它如鲁比尼教授警告的那样持续6个季度，那么世界其它地区的抵销性政策行动将微不足道、为时过晚。
美联储能抵挡这种风险吗？鲁比尼教授在随后发表的一篇论文中给出了它为何不能的8个理由***。（他真的非常喜欢列举要点！）简言之，这些理由是：美元和通胀风险限制了美国货币政策的放宽；激进的宽松政策只能解决缺乏流动性的问题，不能解决偿债能力；债券保险公司将丧失它们的信用评级，这会产生可怕的后果；主权财富基金将无法应对过于庞大的总体损失；公共政策干预的力度不足以稳定住宅市场损失；美联储无法解决影子金融体系的问题；监管机构无法在损失透明度和监管自律之间找到一条合适的中间道路，这两者都是必须的；最后，以交易为导向的金融系统本身处于严重的危机之中。
现在的风险确实很高，政府的应对能力也比多数人期望的更加有限。这并非意味着没有解决办法。不幸的是，这些解决办法是有毒的。最终，政府会解决金融危机。这是一条铁律。救援行动可以通过政府公开承担坏账或通胀，或者同时承担两者来实现。日本选择了第一种，这令日本财务省非常不快。但日本是一个债权国，其储户完全相信政府的偿付能力。但美国是一个债务国。它必须保持住外国人的信任。如果做不到这一点，上述通胀解决方案就会成为可能。这足以解释为何金价现在达到每盎司920美元。
对美国及世界其它国家而言，住宅市场泡沫的破裂和金融系统脆弱性之间的关联形成了巨大的风险。以美联储为首的美国公共部门正在展开拯救行动。最终，它们会成功。但这条路可能会极其不平坦。
*《美国经济即将迎来衰退？》(A Coming Recession in the US Economy?) 2006年7月17日，www.rgemonitor.com；** 《不断上升的系统性金融崩溃风险》(The Rising Risk of a Systemic Financial Meltdown)，2008年2月5日；***《美联储和政策制定者能够避免系统性金融崩溃吗？很可能不能》(Can the Fed and Policy Makers Avoid a Systemic Financial Meltdown? Most Likely Not)，2008年2月8日 BANK CAREER DEMANDS AN MBA STRATEGY(读MBA的战略)BANK CAREER DEMANDS AN MBA STRATEGY
This cyclicality could even be an advantage. Those considering business school now are still 18 months to two years away from the job market. In that time some skills, notably risk management, may well become more important, and the market as a whole may dip and turn up.
According to Mr Pettman now might be a good time for MBA study. “You get out when the market is tough and come back later when hopefully things are looking up,” he says.
Time to start downloading those application forms, perhaps? By Neil Courtis Monday, February 25, 2008
For many, an MBA is a path to a new career. And for those targeting investment banking, top business schools certainly offer a springboard. But to what? With fear of recession rising and banks reeling from huge credit write-offs, potential business school applicants need to appreciate that they may face a more competitive job market when they graduate. Banks, in particular, may hire fewer and be less willing to take risks with those they hire. Career changers more than ever need a strategy.
First off, applicants need to pick the right school. Recruiters at investment banks have never been short of résumés. Time is limited and leading business schools appeal because they provide a filtered talent pool.Many banks will visit only three to five schools in Europe and a handful more in the US. Accordingly, a career switcher going into banking really needs to get into one of these top schools. If you have a particular bank in mind, look at the schools' annual graduate employment data and see which ones banks favour most for their MBA hires.
But read these statistics carefully. Many step from business school into the financial sector, but many come from there in the first place, too. Career-switchers need a strategy to compete with their more experienced peers. Advance preparation is key. Investment banks usually recruit primarily through internships. Many expect to make all their offers to those they have seen perform as summer interns and will only return to recruit full-time if their offers are not accepted. In Europe, where one-year MBAs are the norm, this creates a conundrum: often candidates are being interviewed for internships only weeks into their first finance classes. Banks make allowances, but personal study helps. The Vault Career Guide to Investment Banking is a popular interview preparation text. Talking to alumni is even better.
So what are investment banks looking for? In many ways, the same things as all employers: good academics; a clear career progression at a prestigious firm; language skills (increasingly important); and, for some special teams, strong knowledge of a particular industry. But ideally banks want to see something exceptional. Investment banking is an intensely competitive and increasingly commoditised business and banks look for people who will give them an edge. “We want entrepreneurial ability,” says Gaynor Arnold, a former banker who now heads Lehman Brothers' investment banking recruitment for Europe. “Some evidence from a candidate's life that shows they have pushed themselves outside their comfort zone: perhaps starting a business or even doing something philanthropic. “We want people who can step into a difficult situation – perhaps dealing with an unfamiliar product or a particularly tough client – and have the personal drive to survive and succeed.”
And candidates need to show they understand this work environment. MBAs hired as first-year associates work gruelling hours (80-90 hours a week even as interns) and have to face starting again near the bottom of the food chain. Importantly, this means getting along with those who have been promoted internally after three years of hard labour as analysts. Candidates who show they are prepared for these demands are obviously more attractive.
Conversely, those with lots of managerial experience or family responsibilities may have their work cut out demonstrating that they have thought about how they will cope with the long hours and initial lack of status.
According to Sandra Schwarzer, director of business school Insead's careers service, some introspection is in order. She says: “If what you really enjoy is managing people, you need to be aware that it is not a big part of most roles.
“However,” she continues, “if you like quantitative analysis and juggling multiple projects and the excitement of being where the action is, you may thrive.”
Regarding quantitative skills, banks clearly require some level of numeracy. If you cannot find a short cut to calculate 12.5 per cent of 64 you should probably look elsewhere.
However, MBAs are not being recruited as quantitative specialists (banks look to PhDs and stars from the natural sciences for these roles). Banking remains a people business and networking is a crucial skill. Not only for the job itself, but so that you can get to know the people you might be working with and understand if the job is for you.
But how to strike the balance between charm and ingratiation? Anyone who has watched a clutch of job-hungry students surround a potential employer at a drinks reception will know this is not an easy balance. A little bit of human courtesy can work wonders: something as simple as asking a glassless recruiter if they need a drink can mark you out from the ravenous crowd.
Reading the headlines, potential business school applicants may wonder whether to make the leap at all. However, the picture may not be so grim. While belts are being tightened, no bank wants to repeat the mistakes of the recent past according to Mark Pettman, a director at Michael Page Financial Services. “In 2002,” he says, “banks let too many junior people go and struggled to replace that capacity in 2004 when the market was picking up.”
This cyclicality could even be an advantage. Those considering business school now are still 18 months to two years away from the job market. In that time some skills, notably risk management, may well become more important, and the market as a whole may dip and turn up.
According to Mr Pettman now might be a good time for MBA study. “You get out when the market is tough and come back later when hopefully things are looking up,” he says.
Time to start downloading those application forms, perhaps? |
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